The anticipated boom in scrap trading is yet to materialize due to unsupportive global steel demand, according to Tayfun İşeri, chairman of Turkey’s Flat Steel Product Exporters, Importers and Manufacturers Association (YİSAD). At the Kallanish Steel Scrap 2025 event in Istanbul, İşeri stated that scrap prices are dictated by steel demand, which is expected to remain slow in the first half of 2025 until inflation and interest rates decrease enough to boost consumer spending.
Political dynamics will play a key role, with the potential impact of a US-Russia deal over the Ukraine war and the uncertain situation in Gaza affecting trade. İşeri noted that the EU’s energy transition is unlikely to impact scrap supply and demand until at least 2027. The fluid US tariff situation, influenced by President Donald Trump's policies, adds to the uncertainty, particularly regarding US scrap imports from Canada and the ability of US rolling mills to import slab feedstock.
Globalization has shifted to regionalization and localization, and the survival of the steel industry through this shift remains uncertain. Ä°Ĺźeri believes Trump's actions may spur foreign investment in the US, with companies like Hyundai Steel and Nippon considering US plants. However, high inflation and interest rates may affect investor appetite.
In Turkey, crude steel production capacity is expected to exceed 97 million tonnes per year by 2053, with electric arc furnaces accounting for 85%. Turkish Steel Producers Association (TCUD) general secretary Veysel Yayan noted that Trump's tariffs will localize the steel sector further, affecting Turkish trade. Turkish domestic scrap collection has reached approximately 12 million tonnes per year and will continue to grow, with a decreasing reliance on European imports.
