China’s domestic HRC spot prices demonstrated marginal stability on May 29, 2025, with Q235B 4.75mm HRC recorded at 3,570–3,580 CNY/tonne ex-works (EXW) Tianjin. This represents a slight consolidation from earlier in May, when prices averaged 3,210 CNY/tonne in Shanghai, reflecting a modest month-on-month decline. Regional variations persisted, with Nanning reporting Q235B 3.0mm HRC at 3,240 CNY/tonne ex-works Liuzhou Steel, while Baotou Steel maintained 3,550–3,580 CNY/tonne for wider-gauge coils.
The domestic market’s resilience is attributed to steady manufacturing demand, particularly from appliances and machinery sectors, which saw a notable year-on-year production increase in May. Government infrastructure stimulus, including accelerated bond issuance, further supported price stability despite seasonal softness.
Chinese HRC export prices on FOB terms remained under pressure due to subdued global demand and competitive pricing from alternative suppliers. As of May 29:
SS400 3.0mm HRC: $460–465/tonne FOB Tianjin, slightly down from mid-May levels.
SAE1006 2.0mm HRC: $468–472/tonne FOB Shanghai, reflecting thinner-gauge premiums.
Major mills defended offers above $470/tonne FOB, but tradable prices settled closer to $455–460/tonne amid limited buyer enthusiasm. The LME Steel HRC Futures for June 2025 delivery closed at $453/tonne FOB China, signaling cautious near-term expectations.
CFR pricing exhibited regional disparities, influenced by freight costs and destination-specific demand:
United Arab Emirates: $480–490/tonne CFR for SS400 HRC, competing with Indian offers at higher levels.
Saudi Arabia: 1.2mm HRC offers softened to $515–520/tonne CFR, though no large-volume deals were finalized.
Vietnam: Q235 HRC stabilized at $470–472/tonne CFR, supported by late-June shipment bookings.
European markets faced headwinds from EU safeguard measures, including a duty on exceeding country-specific quotas, which suppressed Chinese HRC inflows.
CIF premiums remained sensitive to insurance and logistics adjustments:
Vietnam: Q235 HRC eased to $468–471/tonne CIF Ho Chi Minh, a reduction from early May to stimulate orders.
Bangladesh: SAE1006 2.0mm HRC traded at $505–510/tonne CIF Chittagong, aligning with regional benchmarks.
The domestic-exworks premium over FOB export prices widened to approximately 1,000 CNY/tonne (3,570 CNY vs. $460 FOB), incentivizing mills to prioritize local sales. This divergence underscores the impact of China’s export tax policies and global trade barriers on outward flows.
India: Maintained $520–530/tonne CFR UAE for S275 HRC, undercutting Chinese offers.
Japan: SAE1006 HRC to Vietnam was quoted at $505/tonne CFR, pressuring Chinese mills to adjust premiums.
The U.S.-China tariff de-escalation in mid-May briefly lifted export sentiment, but EU safeguards—such as quota growth limits and country caps—restricted upside. Vietnam’s potential anti-dumping measures on Japanese HRC further complicated regional trade flows.
As of May 29, 2025, China’s HRC pricing reflects a balancing act between domestic stability and export competitiveness. Key takeaways include:
Domestic EXW: 3,570–3,580 CNY/tonne (Q235B 4.75mm)
FOB: $460–465/tonne (SS400 3.0mm)
CFR: $480–530/tonne, varying by destination
CIF: $468–510/tonne, with Vietnam as a focal point
The market outlook remains cautious, with export volumes projected to decline month-on-month to 1.09 million tonnes in May. Domestic demand and policy support are expected to buffer against sharper declines, while global trade tensions and regional competition persist as critical watchpoints.
