Demand for steel in Germany will not recover until 2025, and even then the figures are unlikely to significantly exceed the level seen during the 2020 coronavirus crisis, according to the German steel association WV Stahl.
The association's comments come in response to the latest global steel demand forecast from the World Steel Association. WorldSteel predicts that global steel demand will recover in 2024-2025, growing by 1-2% after a prolonged negative phase during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.However, the association warns that the biggest challenges in the global steel industry are facing the European Union and especially Germany. While steel demand in the EU is expected to recover in 2024-2025, the pace will be slow. For Germany specifically, the forecast for demand growth in 2024 is only marginal, with a slightly larger increase projected for 2025. But this figure is still unlikely to significantly surpass 2020 levels.
"Despite the global economic recovery, we are not making any progress in this country. This is bad news that extends far beyond our sector, because steel demand is an indicator of the general condition of Germany as an industrial location," commented Kerstin Maria Rippel, executive director of WV Stahl.
Rippel stressed that if Germany and the EU want to achieve climate goals while maintaining economic strength and resilience, they need a strong industrial base. She called for urgent policy action to reinvigorate Germany's position as an industrial powerhouse.
According to WorldSteel's forecast, global steel demand is expected to grow by 1.7% in 2024 compared to 2023, reaching 1.79 billion tons. In 2025, demand is projected to increase by a further 1.2% to 1.81 billion tons.
However, demand in China is expected to remain flat in 2024 before resuming a downward trend in 2025. India is forecast to see the highest growth rate at 8% in both 2024 and 2025. Excluding China, global steel demand is predicted to grow by 3.5% in 2024-2025.Germany is currently the 8th largest steel producer in the world, having decreased production by 3.9% in 2023 compared to 2022 to 35.4 million tons.
